Losing hurts more when it is a surprise.
It hurts most when it is optional.
Attackers, whether charging opposite cavalry or plaintiffs in custody battles or hikers tackling a new trail, have it rough. The act of attacking is to engage the will to change the status quo. And the universe hates that.
Not in a general way—because the cliché that “change is the only constant” is largely true. The universe hates it when you specifically challenge the status quo.
And the world is constantly teaching us that while God may love you, nature does not. Nature does not appreciate you at all.
And that’s why things have been arranged the way they are. The world puts all would-be attackers at the same disadvantage. But it gives savvy attackers a quiet advantage:
Attackers choose when and where the fight happens.
This fact is rarely appreciated. Even after thousands of years of lessons, rash men attack without having chosen when and how to attack. Their emotions: hubris, fear, hatred spur them. In all cases, disaster.
I love this photo because this man did not put feelings out front. He counted the cost. That gives him—and anyone who follows his example—the pause to attack only when and how it is appropriate.
And this raises the question: what circumstances rise to the level of “appropriate”?
Attacking is appropriate only when winning is:
- worth the cost, and
- highly likely.
That is common sense.
Uncommonly good application of this rule is difficult. Framing one’s benefits objectively is hard. Even worse is understanding a conflict well enough to predict how it will unfold. Regardless, both are required before an attack should begin.
That is not to say that every challenge can only be taken when everything is fully understood. But your understanding of a situation usually declines once the conflict begins. You have to start with a strong position so that, as your assumptions degrade, you still have room to succeed.
To do otherwise is to give in to nature’s bias for the status quo.
And to give the universe a reason to actually dislike you, that hurts.
Even more when it surprises you.
Revisions
03-24-2026: Initial post.